Analyst Marci Ryvicker was a ball of cheer this week, issuing a forecast for a 13% drop for U.S. commercial radio revenue in 2009, “and even this number may be too optimistic.”
“Radio has, in our view, hit bottom given the various penny stocks, significant debt levels, no M&A [mergers and acquisitions], nonexistent credit and significant rev and EBITDA declines.”
She anticipates that radio groups will focus on avoiding potential delisting and bankruptcies rather than increasing revenue, and she lowered Wachovia’s revenue estimates for numerous companies.
For instance, she lowered her outlook for CBS to –13.9%, for Citadel to –12.7% and Saga to –7.9%. Best performers among those stocks she follows will be Emmis and Saga, she thinks, but even those have high single-digit revenue declines.