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Analyst Calls Radio’s April Performance a ‘Significant Miss’

Analyst Calls Radio's April Performance a 'Significant Miss'

Radio financial analyst Marci L. Ryvicker is cutting her industry radio revenue forecasts for the year and says it “may not be the last time.”
The Wachovia Capital Markets analyst noted the “significant miss” shown in last week’s April sales figures from RAB. Ryvicker had forecast a 1% drop but April was off 4%, as reported here last week. “We now know why most pure-play radio operators’ Q2 guidance was disappointing (or in some cases, not even provided),” she said in a statement to investors.
“During the May earnings season, many pure-play operators deemed Q2 the ‘bottom’ for radio,” she wrote. “We would like to agree, as the April numbers show that this may be the case. However, other than easy comps from political races, New Orleans and Home Depot, we don’t expect core demand to improve much in H2. There continues to be a lack of demand, declining cost-per-point and a weak auto category.”
She also noted the announcement from TNS Media recently that online media may surpass radio in ad dollars by the end of this year.
Ryvicker suggests that investors be “selective” in the broadcast sector right now.