Following the news last Friday from RAB that September radio revenues fell 7%, some Wall Street analysts are revising their financial projections for the industry for the year.
Local revenues were down 7% compared to –3% for September of 2006; and national was down 9% this September, compared to –1% for the same month a year ago.
In a note to clients titled “Sept Radio MUCH Uglier Than Expected,” Wachovia analyst Marci Ryvicker said due to the September numbers, which Wachovia believes continued into October, Wachovia’s new projections are “are –3% and –1.7% for Q4 and the full year, respectively.”
Ryvicker continued: “Breaking Q4 out by month, we anticipate that October will be down 4%, November down 4% and December down 2%. Our new October and November estimates are largely a result of difficult comparisons due to the 2006 elections in addition to much softer market conditions than we had previously anticipated.”
Over at Banc of America, Jonathan Jacoby revised his fourth quarter local market radio ad revenue estimates down 3%, from a previously projected 1%, believing weakness in local markets will continue through Q4, while some buys in large markets wait for PPM to be rolled out before placing ad orders.