BIA/Kelsey has some news for all the digital downers: In its “U.S. Local Advertising Forecast 2017,” the advisory firm predicts that “that online/digital local ad share will exceed the share of print media by 2018.”
That’s a quote from Chief Economist and SVP Mark Fratrik, who cites “an improving U.S. economy, increased spending by national brands in local media channels, extraordinary growth in mobile and social advertising, and the continued expansion and selection of online/digital advertising platforms” as reasons for the increase in digital and other areas.
Additionally, BIA/Kelsey’s five-year forecast predicts total local ad revenues in the U.S. will reach $148.8 billion in 2017, up 2.4% from $145.2 billion this year.
The firm estimates online/digital will increase at a rate of 13.5%, from $44.2 billion in 2016 to $50.2 billion in 2017. Local desktop display is expected to have a 10.3% compound annual growth rate, as improved broadband access makes more high quality online streaming and sharing of content easier. Local search on desktop devices will grow at a 5.7 percent CAGR. As more search activity takes place on mobile devices, mobile is cannibalizing search dollars from desktop. Email is expected to grow at a 4.7 percent CAGR, driven by volume increases with consumers choosing to opt in to more lists of businesses.
However, they also estimate a decrease of 2.4% year-over-year for print and over-the-air ad revenues, from $101.1 billion in 2016 to $98.6 billion in 2017.
BIA/Kelsey will present highlights from the forecast at an event it is hosting in Boston in December.