In the mid-year update to its Annual U.S. Local Media Forecast (2012–2017), BIA/Kelsey projects total U.S. local media ad revenues to grow from $132.9 billion in 2013 to $151.5 billion in 2017.
That represents a 2.8% compound annual growth rate, growing faster than the firm originally forecast earlier this year. Faster growth in online/digital advertising revenues will drive that speedy overall growth, increasing at a 13.8% compound annual growth rate from $26.5 billion in 2013 to $44.5 billion in 2017. That compares with a CAGR of 1% during the same period for traditional advertising revenues, which will remain flat, growing slightly from $106.4 billion in 2013 to $107 billion in 2017.
“A range of factors will drive local ad revenues higher in 2014 and through the end of the forecast period,” said Mark Fratrik, chief economist, BIA/Kelsey. “A slightly improving U.S. economy, positive outlook by investors, the 2014 elections and Olympics, as well as ad spending around the Affordable Health Care Act, which comes out of the local ad pie, will all contribute to increased local ad spending.”
Location-targeted mobile advertising revenues, which are growing at a faster pace than overall mobile advertising, will increase from $2.9 billion in 2013 to $10.8 billion in 2017, accounting for 52% of overall U.S. mobile ad spending in 2017. Total mobile ad spending will grow from $7 billion in 2013 to $20.7 billion in 2017.
For the first time, BIA/Kelsey’s forecast breaks out the share of ad revenues attributed to print and over-the-air (O-T-A) versus online/digital for radio, Yellow Pages, newspapers and television. The following represent individual media segment shares of the overall local media market by 2017and how those shares have moved from their 2013 position:
- Newspapers — Print: decreasing to 9.1% in 2017
- Newspapers — Online/Digital: remaining steady at 2.4% in 2017
- Yellow Pages — Print: decreasing to 1.5% in 2017
- Yellow Pages — Digital/Online: increasing to 1.9% in 2017
- Radio — O-T-A: decreasing slightly to 10.6% in 2017
- Radio — Online/Digital: growing to 0.5% in 2017
- TV — O-T-A: decreasing slightly to 14.6% in 2017
- TV — Online/Digital: growing to 0.7% in 2017