Source: BIA/Kelsey U.S. Local Media Forecast (2013–2018).
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Market research firm BIA/Kelsey predicts local media advertising revenues will climb from $133.2 billion in 2013 to $158.6 billion in 2018. That represents a compound annual growth rate of 3.6%, according to the company.
Digital media will continue to increase its share of total local media revenues, growing from $31.7 billion (23%) in 2014 to $52.7 billion (33.2%) in 2018, forecasts BIA/Kelsey in “U.S. Local Media Forecast (2013–2018).”
“While the U.S. economy is not expected to grow very quickly over the next few years, we estimate the overall local media market will grow faster than previously thought through 2018,” said Mark Fratrik, senior vice president and chief economist, BIA/Kelsey. “Based on positive trends in the overall local media marketplace, such as faster growth in online and mobile advertising, and the fact that national and local advertisers were slightly more aggressive in their advertising expenditures in 2013 than originally thought, we are optimistic on the entire industry’s ability to grow advertising revenues.”
BIA/Kelsey expects revenue from traditional media, in aggregate, to slightly increase from $105.3 billion in 2013 to $105.9 billion in 2018 (CAGR: 0.1 percent). As expected, the political ad spend cycle contributes to a drop in revenues in odd-numbered years. Despite the year-over-year political advertising seesaw effect, traditional media revenues remain remarkably steady throughout the forecast period.
BIA/Kelsey defines the local media advertising marketplace as those media that provide local audiences to all types of advertisers. Its annual U.S. local media forecast draws from proprietary data; company, industry and country information in the public domain; and discussions with clients and nonclients about the direction and pace of development in the local media marketplace.