Studying the winter Arbitron ratings for big radio groups in New York, L.A. and Chicago, analyst Marci Ryvicker of Wachovia Capital Markets has raised her revenue growth estimates for Radio One.
The company’s change of L.A. station KKBT(FM) “the Beat” to KRBV(FM) “V100, the Best Variety of R&B” in December “appears to be bearing fruit,” she observed.
“While one book does not make a trend, we feel that the company is on the right track and raised our Q4 radio revenue growth estimate to 4.0% from 2.5%.”
CBS Radio, she said, was the only publicly held company among the ones she follows to post year-to-year share gains among adults 25–54 in all three big markets.
“We expect there to be some drastic format changes now that Dan Mason is at the helm, which should result in subsequent ratings improvement.” She noted that Winter 2007 is the first ratings period that will allow CBS to gauge its programs “on a post-Stern basis.”
Emmis station KPWR lost its top spot among adults 18-34 in L.A. but “still managed to show a (year-to-year) share gain of 18%.” However, that company continues to lose “significant” share in both New York and Chicago, which comprise about 39% of its domestic radio revenue.
Regarding Entravision, she wrote, “It’s too early for us to say that (its) L.A. cluster has turned around,” given a 20% decline that it experienced among adults 18–34. But Ryvicker is encouraged to see those ratings have improved on a sequential basis.
L.A. accounts for 38% of Entravision’s radio revenue.