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Borrell Revises Local Ad Forecast

Borrell Associates has changed its 2014 and 2015 local advertising forecast, painting an upbeat picture overall, but a fairly bleak one for traditional media. Earlier forecasts by Borrell have shown mixed levels of growth or decline for expenditures on print and broadcast media.

“The future we all knew was coming has shown up,” said Corey Elliott, director of research. “The days of saying things like ‘Mobile is the next big thing’ and ‘Targeted digital ads are going to be big’ are over.”

Elliott adds: “In the next two years, we will see a tremendous growth in these ad formats, eclipsing any gains in any other media — and even taking away a bit from other digital formats.”

Borrell’s new forecasts are based on an assessment of U.S. ad spending during the first half of 2014. The company focuses on the $104 billion spend by locally-based businesses. Here are some highlights:

● Ad spending on print and broadcast media is forecast to decline a total of 3% next year
● Online advertising will grow 44%
● Two big online formats — paid search and untargeted banner advertising — are forecast to fall 4% and 13%, respectively
● Targeted display advertising will envelop the local marketplace. By the end of 2015, one of every five dollars spend on local advertising will be spent on targeted banners

● Newspaper print advertising will decline 11.1% this year and 4.8% next year. Borrell’s previous forecasts had said declines would end and that expenditures would level out, but not grow

Williamsburg, Va.-based Borrell Associates Inc. provides local market data to 1,200 media clients via its Compass product.